The agreement to involve ASEAN observers is a procedural shift, not a resolution. In Phase 1 ••• See comments Edit post Friday, December 19, 2025

The agreement to involve ASEAN observers is a procedural shift, not a resolution.

In Phase 1, this works. Meetings and observers lower headline pressure and move the conflict from bilateral narrative control into a multilateral setting. That contains escalation in the short term and buys time.

Whether it works beyond that depends on Phase 2 and Phase 3.

In Phase 2, observers must become operational: real access, regular reporting, and mutual verification. If observers remain symbolic or restricted, the process risks becoming delay rather than de-escalation.

Phase 3 depends on accountability. Once ASEAN places its credibility behind the process, prolonged vagueness carries a cost not only for the parties, but for ASEAN itself. At that point, procedure either hardens into constraint or quietly stalls.

So this is containment, not peace yet.

It works temporarily. Long-term success depends on whether mechanisms replace conditions and whether observers move from optics to function.

Midnight

 

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EDIT ARTICLE ---------------------------------------- <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAsmooPDsa3bVQGm123raxPtD5-AlKLdgfB8UZLiw5CiZDUyNYl8YhCRVDKfB39J1BqFgyUNxjtcRtfMXgPgpYoOwWO78hLRH3NmO_cxW-NhWQPGwmdjxN8GeRLVota4XVz6z_OW3YM3gYcbWAni9TTj96J2nJDL5CeXHwHlmFWcj7RFsDW0H0PZIglxQ/s1600/ppppkh.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAsmooPDsa3bVQGm123raxPtD5-AlKLdgfB8UZLiw5CiZDUyNYl8YhCRVDKfB39J1BqFgyUNxjtcRtfMXgPgpYoOwWO78hLRH3NmO_cxW-NhWQPGwmdjxN8GeRLVota4XVz6z_OW3YM3gYcbWAni9TTj96J2nJDL5CeXHwHlmFWcj7RFsDW0H0PZIglxQ/s1600/ppppkh.jpg"/></a></div><div class="html-div xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak xexx8yu xyri2b x18d9i69 x1c1uobl" dir="auto"><div class="html-div xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak xexx8yu xyri2b x18d9i69 x1c1uobl" data-ad-rendering-role="story_message"><div class="x1l90r2v x1iorvi4 x1g0dm76 xpdmqnj" data-ad-comet-preview="message" data-ad-preview="message" id="_r_38b_"><div class="x78zum5 xdt5ytf xz62fqu x16ldp7u"><div class="xu06os2 x1ok221b"><span class="x193iq5w xeuugli x13faqbe x1vvkbs x1xmvt09 x1lliihq x1s928wv xhkezso x1gmr53x x1cpjm7i x1fgarty x1943h6x xudqn12 x3x7a5m x1f6kntn xvq8zen xo1l8bm xzsf02u x1yc453h" dir="auto"><div class="html-div xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak xexx8yu xyri2b x18d9i69 x1c1uobl"><div class="xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs x126k92a"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">The agreement to involve ASEAN observers is a procedural shift, not a resolution.</div></div><div class="x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><span class="html-span xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak xexx8yu xyri2b x18d9i69 x1c1uobl x1hl2dhg x16tdsg8 x1vvkbs"><a class="html-a xdj266r x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak xexx8yu xyri2b x18d9i69 x1c1uobl x1hl2dhg x16tdsg8 x1vvkbs" tabindex="-1"></a></span>In Phase 1, this works. Meetings and observers lower headline pressure and move the conflict from bilateral narrative control into a multilateral setting. That contains escalation in the short term and buys time.</div></div><div class="x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">Whether it works beyond that depends on Phase 2 and Phase 3.</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">In Phase 2, observers must become operational: real access, regular reporting, and mutual verification. If observers remain symbolic or restricted, the process risks becoming delay rather than de-escalation.</div></div><div class="x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">Phase 3 depends on accountability. Once ASEAN places its credibility behind the process, prolonged vagueness carries a cost not only for the parties, but for ASEAN itself. At that point, procedure either hardens into constraint or quietly stalls.</div></div><div class="x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">So this is containment, not peace yet.</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">It works temporarily. Long-term success depends on whether mechanisms replace conditions and whether observers move from optics to function.</div></div><div class="x14z9mp xat24cr x1lziwak x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">Midnight</div></div></div></span></div></div></div></div></div><p> </p> ARE NOT

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